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Thailand Autos annual Report 2011

Thailand Autos annual Report 2011
From:prolog    [Large Medium small]


    Cumulative new vehicles sales for the first 10 months of 2010 have shown substantial growth, rising 49.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 628,361 units, according to figures compiled by Toyota Motor Thailand. In October 2010, the latest month for which data was available as we went to press, sales reached 72,012 units. A recovery of consumer demand (amid a wider economic recovery from last year's recession, and a low interest rate environment) has helped to buoy auto sales this year, even against a backdrop of continued political strife. If replicated across the whole of 2010, the sales volume in the first 10 months of the year would translate into full-year sales of 754,033 units.


    Earlier in 2010, we revised up our forecasts for domestic sales, based on April-July data. We currently expect that domestic sales will reach nearly 763,200 this year, implying a continued acceleration of growth from that seen in the first 10 months of the year. This represents growth of 39% y-o-y. Our confidence in the local sales market is bolstered by evidence of a strengthening upswing in consumer demand - indeed, it appears that this trend has considerably further to run. Although the recentlyannounced 10-month cumulative figure may imply some slight downside risk to our 39% forecast increase in annual sales, it remains the case that 2010 will still have been a very positive year for new vehicle sales within Thailand.


    The production performance thus far in 2010 has been nothing short of startling, especially given the political crisis that has gripped the country. Vehicle production in Thailand for the first nine months of 2010 has surged to 1,197,230 units. For the full year, we are predicting a total production volume of 1,542,035 units in 2010, a rise of 54% y-o-y.


    Our upbeat production forecasts are largely predicated on a dramatic recovery in export performance by Thailand's auto industry so far in 2010. Bolstered by increased shipments to other Asian countries following the cut in import tariffs to 0-5% under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement introduced on January 1, exports have surged across 2010, to reach 664,853 units for the January-September period. The total value of autos and auto part exports for the first nine months of 2010 has reached THB438,805mn, according to figures from the Thailand Automotive Industry Association (TAIA).

   

    The export performance so far in 2010 outstrips the expectations of the market (and ourselves) by a considerable margin. Last quarter, we substantially revised upwards our forecasts for auto exports in 2010 in Thailand, on the basis of the export volumes in the first seven months of the year being replicated across the whole year. We anticipate that shipments will reach a total of 870,687 units in 2010, up from 535,596 in 2009. With the opening of new export-oriented production facilities over the coming years, export growth should remain firm throughout our forecast period.

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